Crude oil prices searching for OPEC direction

Oil prices drifting around in volatile territory in early Tuesday trading as questions circulate over who will do what in terms of production at OPEC. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI

NEW YORK, Nov. 22 (UPI) — Crude oil prices staged an abrupt retreat in early trading Tuesday as doubts lingered over OPEC coordination.

Crude oil prices bounced around net gains and losses in the early rounds of the Tuesday session as investors bet on the latest chatter from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Crude oil prices posted one of their strongest sessions Monday on support from Iran and Russia for a production arrangement, though doubts persisted on Tuesday amid fluid offers from the 14 members of OPEC.

“As long as OPEC members can maintain statements that they are working in harmony, it will be difficult to trade against a rebounding trend given the amount of speculative short positions,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix, said in a research note published Tuesday.

Crude oil prices made a run at $50 per barrel in overnight trading but started the day in New York in mixed territory. The price for Brent crude oil was higher than the previous close by 0.6 percent to open the day at $49.19 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was flat to start trading at $48.25 per barrel.

Crude oil prices are up almost 20 percent from early November in anticipation that the 14 members will agree to hold production levels at a ceiling proposed in Algeria in September. Using the latest production figures, however, OPEC members would have to agree on cuts from somewhere to make the proposal work as planned.

A research note published Monday by Goldman Sachs said a formal agreement would do more to reduce volatility for crude oil prices than support a durable price increase. Russian oil company Lukoil said Tuesday it was pegging its two-year budget plans on $40 per barrel for Brent.

On the economic front, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported gross domestic product for its members grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, up from the 0.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Growth in Europe was slowed by GDP declines in the United Kingdom and Germany, though the entire European Union was relatively stable. The U.S. economy grew 0.7 percent in the third quarter, against a rate of 0.4 percent in the previous quarter.

“Year-on-year GDP growth for the OECD area was 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2016, marginally up from 1.6 percent in the previous quarter,” the organization’s preliminary data showed.

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