Nov. 4 (UPI) — Residents of southern Florida should remain on alert over the coming days as Eta, the storm that ravaged Central America as a deadly Category 4 hurricane, is poised to swing around and head back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather meteorologists said.
From there, the storm will strengthen and chart a wobbly course that will take it over Cuba, and then, by early next week, could threaten the Florida Peninsula. Eta could reach hurricane force again on its way toward Cuba and, at this point, AccuWeather meteorologists expect it to approach southern Florida as a tropical storm.
Eta turned deadly in Central America, where the storm claimed three lives by Wednesday morning. Forecasters expect life-threatening and catastrophic flooding to continue in Central America through the remainder of this week as Eta moves through the region.
In a 1 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was situated about 125 miles northeast of Managua, Nicaragua, moving west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. A Category 1 hurricane has sustained winds of 74 mph.
The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued coastal watches and warnings, but have continued warnings of heavy rain and flooding.
“It appears that Eta will not just wither away over Central America this week as some part of the diminishing storm’s circulation is likely to survive and re-enter the western Caribbean where the process of re-organizing and re-strengthening is bound to occur,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll said.
Interests in Cuba, Florida and the southwestern Bahamas are urged to closely monitor the progress of Eta, especially as the system emerges from the area around Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.
The Florida Keys and Peninsula have largely dodged impacts amid a record-setting Atlantic hurricane season, which has spawned 28 named systems.
No landfalls have occurred in the state yet this season, but forecasters say the region is not out of the woods yet. Eta may pose a significant threat to lives and property, and at the very least, an interruption in daily activities and travel late this weekend and early next week.
The water over the northwestern Caribbean is some of the warmest of the entire Atlantic basin and plenty warm enough to nurture a tropical system. Eta is forecast to spend about 36 hours over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, which is enough to allow for strengthening.
“It may come down to wind shear as to how much strengthening is able to occur prior to the system reaching western Cuba Saturday night,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with increasing altitude. When wind shear is strong, it can inhibit tropical development or cause an established tropical system, such as a hurricane, to weaken.
However, a small amount of wind shear can help vent a tropical system and cause it to strengthen.
Conditions are forecast to deteriorate over western Cuba, especially along the southern coast during Saturday afternoon and evening. Rounds of heavy rain, strong winds and surf are anticipated. The risk of flash flooding will increase, as will the potential for mudslides in the mountainous terrain.
A general 8 to 12 inches of rain is forecast with locally higher amounts in the mountains of Cuba. Peak wind gusts of 80 to 100 mph are forecast over west-central Cuba. A storm surge of several feet is possible along the southern coast of Cuba, near and just east of the center.
In Havana, on the north side of Cuba, northerly winds are likely to create overwash that could lead to coastal flooding in and around the city.
How much rain, wind and storm surge occurs in western Cuba overall will depend on the intensity of Eta at landfall and its forward speed.
“Should Eta strengthen beyond a Category 1 hurricane prior to reaching Cuba and/or move more slowly than projected, rain and wind could be greater than anticipated in Cuba and later Florida,” Doll said.
“On the other hand, should Eta fail to reach hurricane strength prior to crossing Cuba and maintain forward speed, rain and wind could be substantially less than forecast in both Cuba and Florida,” Doll added.
The storm may have another opportunity to strengthen once it emerges over the Florida Straits to the north of Cuba during the day Sunday. At this time, forecasters expect Eta to approach the Florida Keys and South Florida Sunday night.
Impacts in South Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend to early next week will depend on storm’s exact track and speed after its encounter with Cuba. The magnitude of wind, rain and storm surge anticipated in the Sunshine State could change over time as details on Eta’s erratic path and strength become more clear.
Tropical-storm force winds of 40 to 60 mph are likely to arrive in the Florida Keys as early as Saturday night. The strong winds will then spread northward over the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday and Sunday night. Gusts this strong could lead to sporadic power outages and send loose items in yards and patios airborne.
Forecasters are urging people to secure outdoor items in advance of the storm and take other precautions such as locating coverings for windows and checking the operation of storm shudders and ensuring that generators are in working order.
Provided that Eta strikes Cuba as a hurricane and maintains some strength while crossing Cuba on Saturday night, a potential exists for hurricane-force wind gusts of 74 mph or greater in part of the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Sunday.
At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect a general 4 to 8 inches of rain over South Florida, the Florida Keys and part of the western part of the Bahamas with locally higher amounts to near 1 foot possible. Rainfall of this magnitude has the potential to cause flooding in low-lying areas.
The circulation from Eta, even as a tropical storm, is likely to create a storm surge over coastal areas of southern Florida. Storm surge could inundate some roads and escape routes should Eta affect the region as a hurricane.
Easterly flow of air around an area of high pressure to the north had already stirred above-normal tides and rough seas and surf from the Keys through the Atlantic coast of the Florida Peninsula this week.
The exact path that Eta will take through Cuba and around Florida is uncertain, but the possibilities are even less certain for where the storm will head later next week and beyond.
Forecasters said the most likely scenario is for Eta to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico after striking southern Florida, but there is the potential that the storm will linger near Cuba and Florida instead, or it could possibly even move northward over the Bahamas.
Eta has already made history and matched the strength of the strongest storm of the tumultuous 2020 hurricane season — Hurricane Laura — when its winds peaked at 150 mph earlier this week.
Eta joined the ranks of eight other tropical systems in the Atlantic this season and underwent rapid strengthening, which is defined by a tropical system that experiences an increase its maximum sustained winds by 35 mph within 24 hours.
Its winds increased from 70 mph when it was at tropical-storm force late Sunday evening to 150 mph — just shy of Category 5 strength — late Monday evening — in just 24 hours.
When Eta reached Category 4 strength, it achieved a rare feat for this late in the season. Only three Category 4 hurricanes — Lenny in 1999, Michelle in 2001 and Paloma in 2008 — and one Category 5 hurricane have developed in the Atlantic during the month of November.
When Eta became a tropical storm Saturday, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season tied 2005 for generating the most tropical storms in a single season.
The National Hurricane Center had never used the name Eta before this storm, making it the farthest the center ever dipped into the Greek alphabet to name a tropical storm. The only other year to use Greek letters to name Atlantic storms after the season’s designated list was exhausted was 2005.