New App Calculates Odds Of A Flight Crash
If you’re flying on a Boeing 777 Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong to Los Angeles on any given day, there’s a one in 4,068,434 chance that your plane will crash. At least that’s what a new app called “Am I Going Down?” says.
That means if you take that flight every day for the next 11,146 years, you’ll be unlikely to experience an incident. Created by London-based company Vanilla Pixel, the app uses real flight statistics to analyze flight safety, Developer Nic Johns says it’s geared toward those who are uneasy about air travel.
“The initial inspiration comes from my co-founder and wife, Julie, who for many years has suffered from a fear of flying,” says Johns.
“In developing ‘Am I Going Down?’ I wanted to present the fact that the vast majority of flights are incredibly low risk. Our app is meant as tool to help reassure fearful fliers.”
Johns says more than 10 million routes have been assessed using data from sources such as the Geneva-based Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, the United States National Transportation Safety Board and the Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organization.
“For my analysis I only include crashes where there was at least one passenger fatality — which is the relevant stat for those with a fear of flying,” says Johns.
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“I then incorporate the volume of flights, weighted to the most recent 10 years, to provide the final ‘one in a million’ statistics.”
Bad timing?
Johns admits the timing of the release of the app was awkward, given that it came out just days after AirAsia flight QZ8501 went down. The developer says it was an unfortunate coincidence.
“I actually developed the app in February 2014, shortly before the Malaysia Airlines MH370 disappearance,” says Johns.
Johns admits the timing of the release of the app was awkward, given that it came out just days after AirAsia flight QZ8501 went down.
The developer says it was an unfortunate coincidence.
“I actually developed the app in February 2014, shortly before the Malaysia Airlines MH370 disappearance,” says Johns.
“Due to that I postponed the release and worked on a few other things, then finalized and submitted it to Apple in December. The AirAsia QZ8501 flight crashed two weeks later.
“There have been a few raised eyebrows but most people know it was a coincidence.”
The “Am I Going Down?” app, now available in iTunes, costs $0.99. It’s only available on Apple at the moment though if the app is successful, an Android version is a possibility for the future, says Johns.
“The positive response from anxious fliers has been amazing, really encouraging,” says Johns.
