In New Hampshire, the new Fox News poll puts Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 14 percent, and Rubio at 13 percent. It is the 40th poll in a row that shows Trump on top in New Hampshire, and one of several recent polls that have shown him with the support of twice as many Republicans as the number 2 candidate.
But some numbers in the Fox News poll don’t bode well for the Republican frontrunner.
Trump is also leading polls not considered helpful to his White House ambitions. In Iowa, about 20 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa said they would refuse to vote for Trump over a Democrat in the general election, compared to 11 percent who said the same about Cruz.
Trump receives much of his support from first-time Republican caucus voters. Of all Iowans who said they will vote in this year’s Republican caucus, about 38 percent are first-timers — 43 percent of which support Trump.
Among Republicans who have voted in the Iowa caucus before, Trump leads with 28 percent over Cruz’s 25 percent.
In New Hampshire, Trump is also the candidate who would make the most Republicans stay home in November. About 26 percent of New Hampshirites would not vote for Trump over a Democrat — almost twice as many –14 percent — as said the same about Cruz.
The Fox News Poll was conducted Jan. 18-21 by telephone with live interviewers by the Democratic firm of Anderson Robbins Research and the Republican firm Shaw & Company Research (R).
In both New Hampshire and Iowa, a sample of 801 registered voters selected from statewide voter files was used. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus five percentage points.
In poll averages by RealClear Politics, Trump leads Cruz in Iowa by 5 percent and in New Hampshire by 19.5 percent.
The closed Iowa caucuses are Feb. 1 and the New Hampshire primary election is Feb. 9.
